Unless you’ve spent the past six weeks under a rock, you’re well aware that it’s just about time for the biggest, sexiest and campiest dog-and-pony show on the planet: the Academy Awards (81^st annual).

The Oscars are traditionally preceded by a somewhat lesser dog-and-pony show, although one in which you might be more personally invested: your workplace’s annual Oscar pool. If you are determined to finally defeat that crowing nit in Sales who seems to win year after year, stop listening to the empty Oscar chatter in the elevator, and fill in your Xeroxed ballot with DRIVEN’s predictions, to be found after the jump.

Even though every Academy Award ceremony is filled with its share of surprise winners, these are the actors and films that are as close to a sure bet as you can hope for. My predictions are based on the nominees recent good fortunes at the Screen Actors Guild, Directors Guild of America and BAFTA (the British Oscars) awards, combined with some semi-scientific industry polling and a hefty dose of gut feeling, these are the actors and films that are as close to a sure bet as you can hope for. (Of course, my ego wouldn’t let me pass up the chance to give my opinion of which nominees should win).

Most office Oscar ballots list the Top Ten categories. This is the reason most people lose out to the Sales guy. The Best Picture and the top acting award winners are fairly easy to predict, it’s the Best Director, Screenplay and Animation awards that’ll trip you up. So pay attention. Predicted winners are in red.

Best Animated Feature

The award will go to:
WALL-E. Okay, this one was easy.

The Oscar should go to:
I have to agree, it’s WALL-E.

Best Original Screenplay

The award will go to:
Dustin Lance Black for Milk. Since the film will probably lose the Best Picture battle, Oscar voters will give it the next best award.

The Oscar should go to:
There wasn’t a better written motion picture this past year than Black’s screenplay for Milk.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The award will go to:
Slumdog Millionaire’s Simon Beaufoy. The Screenwriters Guild and several critics associations have already given it the award, and there’s no reason it shouldn’t gobble up the Academy Award, too.

The Oscar should go to:
I’d have to give it to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, beating out The Reader by a frame. Regardless, The Reader and Button are both far superior to Doubt and Frost/Nixon.

Best Song

The award will go to:
Peter Gabriel for his song “Down To Earth” from WALL-E. Although two Slumdog songs are nominated, they could cancel each other out, plus voters love to give this award to aging rock star songwriters. (That is, unless Gabriel’s hissy fit over how he was supposed to perform at the awards show, and his decision not to sing the song live ends up costing him votes).

The Oscar should go to:
Bruce Springsteen for The Wrestler. Oh wait, the Boss’s ditty wasn’t nominated. WHY? Sour grapes aside, I’m an old Genesis fan, so Peter Gabriel’s “Down To Earth” gets my vote.

Best Director

The award will go to:
The DGA (Director’s Guild) has already given its top award to Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire, so it’s unlikely they’ll change their minds before February 22.

The Oscar should go to:
Since Christopher Nolan wasn’t nominated for his brilliant work with The Dark Knight, it’s a toss up between David Fincher for Benjamin Button and Gus Van Zant for Milk. Fincher flawlessly combined live action with astounding CGI effects, while Van Zant gave heart to a speech heavy political movie. However, after all is said and done, Gus Van Zant’s Milk really quenches the cinematic thirst.

Best Supporting Actress

The award will go to:
Votes for the Doubt gals (Viola Davis and Amy Adams) will probably cancel each other out and The Wrestler’s Marisa Tomei already has an Oscar (My Cousin Vinny), so the race is really between Tariji P. Henson for Benjamin Button and Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Henson was great, but the feeling is that she has a long career ahead of her, and the Academy really likes a paid-their-dues, Tinsel-Town-rules veteran like Cruz.

The Oscar should go to:
Woody Allen’s Vicky Cristina Barcelona should have garnered more nominations since it is one of Woody’s best films in years. So, it’s Penélope Cruz for me, too. (Tarji will score an Oscar of her own in a couple of years).

Best Supporting Actor

The award will go to:
Although many would like to believe he’s receiving the award because his untimely death, Heath Ledger’s performance as The Joker in The Dark Knight was stunning and jaw-dropping. He deserves this award, dead or alive.

The Oscar should go to:
If anyone gets it besides Heath Ledger, it’s a sign that the Apocalypse has begun.

Best Actress

The award will go to:
Melissa Leo from Frozen River is the real dark horse that could prove the evening’s biggest surprise win, and, of course, Meryl Streep’s performance in Doubt is her fifteenth Oscar nomination in the past quarter century. But everyone loves The Reader’s Kate Winslet and a win for the British beauty is long overdue.

The Oscar should go to:
I thought her turn in Revolutionary Road should have gotten her the Best Actress nod, but she was still unforgettable for role as a former Nazi in The Reader. It’s Kate Winslet all the way.

Best Actor

The award will go to:
In the art-imitating-life The Wrestler, Mickey Rourke gives the performance of his lifetime. He has made some very public mistakes over the years, though, and the Academy has a long memory. Voters aren’t sure if he’s still a loose cannon or a true Hollywood convert. That’s why Sean Penn’s equally compelling title performance in Milk will earn him the prize.

The Oscar should go to:
Penn is great in Milk, but Mickey Rourke puts his heart, soul and cajones into his body-slamming lead role. Booze, abuse and general wackiness aside, Mickey Rourke should take home the title this year.

Best Picture

The award will go to:
It’s already won practically every industry and critics’ award on planet Earth, but a Slumdog Millionaire backlash is gaining momentum. Will it be strong enough to ensure Milk or The Reader the Best Pic prize? Probably not. You better lean on the side of error if you want to sweep the office pool, so pencil in Slumdog Millionaire.

The Oscar should go to:
I liked Slumdog Millionaire, but not as much as The Reader, Milk and The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button (or the not-nominated The Dark Knight and The Wrestler). Now, those five movies deserve to be called the best of the year, but since ties in the Oscar race are rare, my vote goes to… The Curious Case Of Benjamin Button. Based on a F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, directed by David Fincher and featuring Brad Pitt’s best acting job of his career — it all adds up.

Good luck, and when you win that office pool, maybe you can take some of your winnings to the nearest multiplex or video store, and actually take in some of these incredible performances.